Although the battle for Avdiivka has been ongoing for a decade, I’ve ‘only’ been writing about it since the main siege operations started in October.
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It’s a multi-layered effort, and the way Russian forces go about it, splintered into many simultaneous directions to overextend the defenses in a way that the least promising section of the front today may be tomorrow’s breakthrough – so it’s complex to report in a meaningful way.
However, every now and then, a development perfectly encapsulates everything that’s happening, and makes it easier to convey the story.
Russian forces have divided the strongly fortified Donbas city of Avdiivka in two and are strangling Ukrainian troops in the southern section as they now control the main supply line – while combat is also ongoing in the north around the bastion of the Coke plant.
One image that surfaced yesterday: the Russian flag is unfurled at the Stella, the exact place where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took his defiant selfie picture.
Pro-Kiev sources are despondent all over. German BILD editor Julian Röpke led the pack:
Russian flag on the Stella in Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/ODM22HErdW
— Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 16, 2024
Röpke writes: ‘The biggest task for the Ukrainians will be to get out of there alive.’
In this other video, you see Ukrainian service members leaving the Avdiivka area. The Stella is clearly visible. Note how old the soldiers are.
Ukrainian servicemen leaving Avdiivka area. The Stelle taken by the Russian forces is visible. pic.twitter.com/vnvJ5osOFj
— Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 16, 2024
The Ukrainian brigade urgently dispatched to reinforce Avdiivka is completely surrounded and the situation is ‘critical.’
Avdiivka: Azov fighters trapped in the Coke plant. pic.twitter.com/wmvS295rNq
— Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 16, 2024
Slavyangrad reported:
“Azov, transferred to Avdeevka, is already whining that they are in their worst nightmare. The militants released a video with the description: ‘Avdeevka. Coke plant. 60 aerial bombs – day and night, enemy shelling from artillery and MLRS. Continuous assaults on armored vehicles and enemy infantry invasion. They use phosphorus shells, which cause fuel tanks to catch fire. Toxic smog spreads throughout the plant’.”
Basically, what we see now is that the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Avdiivka are collapsing all around, with the Russian forces having taken the fortified areas ‘Zenith,’ ‘Cheburashka’ and the Donetsk filtration station.
Pro-Kiev channel Deep State says that ‘not everyone managed to escape’ from the Zenit/Cheburashka base while running away.
Thousands of defenders now face encirclement. The last escape routes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being cut off.
Withdrawing forces from Avdiivka, they suffered very heavy losses from Russian strikes, but also ‘friendly fire’ and sheer loss of orientation leading to minefields.
Simplicius the Thinker writes on Substack:
“Sensing the coming collapse, yesterday Russian forces were said to have broadly transmitted a surrender ultimatum to the entire Avdiivka garrison, giving them upwards of one day to lay down their arms en masse:
[shares a TG channel]: “Ultimatum” . “The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine this morning, on their frequencies, was asked to surrender and avoid losses of personnel. In return, a safe corridor was proposed to reach our rear and guarantee the preservation of lives. No answer. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to conduct fierce resistance. Over the course of 24 hours, about 50 people reached our positions. All of them were frostbitten.”
A Russian source sums up the situation for the Azov forces sent to help: “The neo-Nazis’ losses are colossal.”
#NewsMap
The Ukrainian army is in the process of pulling out of #Avdiivka. Russian invasion forces are quickly advancing inside and around the town.
Let’s hope as many as possible Ukrainian soldiers will make it out alive. pic.twitter.com/rmDZKIpDzF— Julian Röpcke (@JulianRoepcke) February 15, 2024
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