The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has been rocked by large-scale protests in response to senior Hamas officials’ orders for Muslims to march into Palestine to assist them in their struggle against Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood’s local wing, which is allied with Hamas from whom they share the same ideological origins, is responsible for the unrest and saw some of its prominent youth members arrested. The timing of these developments hints that Hamas is becoming desperate to expand the conflict.
For as tough as the toll on its troops has been, Israel is militarily winning against Hamas after successfully driving them into the southernmost corner of Gaza, though its impending victory over that group would be a pyrrhic one after the collective punishment of the Palestinians in the process destroyed the self-professed Jewish State’s reputation. Nevertheless, that was a cost that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu was willing to bear, which Hamas wrongly thought would deter him from invading.
With their back against the wall and on the brink of being defeated, the only realistic chance of saving themselves is to open up another regional front that could possibly distract Israel from finishing its campaign, ergo why Hamas and its ideological allies are stirring up trouble in Jordan all of a sudden. The public pretext upon which this is happening concerns the upcoming Rafah operation, but that coincides with Israel’s impending military victory just as much as it does with genuine humanitarian concerns.
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The second front opened up by Yemen’s Houthis in the south was unable to distract Israel from continuing its invasion, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah in the north has been reluctant to put everything they’ve militarily and politically built there on the line just for Hamas. That’s why the latter has yet to open up a third front that could prove to be a game-changer, though potentially in the worst way possible from their perspective if they lose the existential conflict that they’d spark in that scenario.
With the Houthis’ help being appreciated but still strategically minimal in terms of what Hamas needs to happen right now, while Hezbollah is holding back and might continue to do so even if declining to open up a third front could mean Hamas’ defeat, the only recourse is to provoke unrest in Jordan. If the protests there spiral out of control and can’t be quelled by its security forces, then an emergency Israeli intervention can’t be ruled out in order to save the monarchy from an Iranian-like Islamic Revolution.
This sequence of events is the only realistic way to distract Israel from militarily defeating Hamas, the campaign of which has reached the point where Tel Aviv is now planning for the post-war future. Axios cited senior Israeli officials to claim that their country wants a multinational Arab military force to take responsibility for law enforcement and humanitarian activities there. Jordan would probably participate in this mission since it recognizes Israel, but it might not be able to if large-scale domestic turmoil erupts.
As it stands, the odds of the Hashemite Kingdom slipping into a Libyan-like conflict are low, let alone the monarchy being deposed like the former Iranian was 45 years ago. Be that as it may, desperate people do desperate things, and Hamas is definitely desperate enough to do its utmost to destabilize Jordan in order to save itself at this pivotal point in this war’s endgame. It’ll likely fail and be militarily defeated by Israel, but if it succeeds, then the resultant conflict could be a regional game-changer.
